Guinea’s 1-0 victory over Kenya on Thursday evening was bad news for Bafana Bafana as the battle for the only remaining AFCON 2027 qualification place in Group D heats up.
Serhou Guirassy scored the only goal as Guinea defeated Kenya in Conakry, giving the West Africans their first points of the qualifying campaign.
Back in contention
The result means Guinea have immediately put themselves back into contention after losing 2-1 to South Africa in their opening fixture.
And because Kenya are already guaranteed a place at the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations as co-hosts, Guinea’s victory has major implications for the remaining three teams in the group.
Only one additional qualification place is available in Group D.
That means South Africa, Guinea and Eritrea are effectively competing for a single ticket to the tournament.
Group D standings
After two rounds of matches, South Africa lead the group with six points.
| Team | Played | Points |
|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 2 | 6 |
| Guinea | 2 | 3 |
| Kenya | 2 | 1 |
| Eritrea | 2 | 1 |
Bafana Bafana followed their 2-1 victory over Guinea with a commanding 5-0 win against Eritrea, giving Pitso Mosimane’s side a perfect start.
Guinea, meanwhile, recovered from their opening defeat by beating Kenya.
That leaves them only three points behind South Africa with four qualifying matches still to play.
Why Kenya’s result doesn’t help Bafana Bafana
Ordinarily, a victory over a fellow group opponent would have a straightforward impact on the qualification race.
But Kenya are in a unique position.
As one of the three co-hosts, alongside Uganda and Tanzania, Kenya have already secured their place at AFCON 2027.
Their results still affect the Group D standings, but Kenya are not competing for the qualification place that South Africa, Guinea and Eritrea are chasing.
Guinea therefore gained three valuable points without directly putting Kenya into the qualification battle.
That leaves South Africa with Guinea as their principal challenger for the remaining spot.
Bafana Bafana still in control
The situation remains positive for South Africa, who have collected maximum points from their opening two matches and currently sit three points clear of Guinea.
However, Guinea’s victory means Bafana Bafana cannot afford to take their position for granted.
The West Africans now have momentum after recovering from their defeat to South Africa, while Eritrea remain on one point after losing heavily to Bafana Bafana.
The next round of fixtures will be played in November, when Guinea face Eritrea and South Africa take on Kenya.
With only one qualification place available to the three non-host nations, every point dropped by South Africa could become increasingly significant as the campaign progresses.