Voter dissatisfaction is driving support away from dominant parties without consolidating behind a single alternative.
South Africa’s major metros are unlikely to return to outright majority rule in the 2026 local government elections, with data from the past two election cycles indicating continued fragmentation and a weakened ANC, while the DA shows signs of recovery in key urban centres.
An analysis of results from the 2016 and 2021 local government elections, read alongside the 2024 national and provincial outcomes, shows that voter movement in metros has moved away from the long-standing ANC versus DA contest into a more dispersed and competitive multiparty environment.
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A shift towards multiparty competition
It’s a trend that’s likely to continue, said netnographer and online analyst Carmen Murray.
Political analyst Prof Theo Neethling of the University of the Free State said the era of dominant single-party control in metros is effectively over.
“Coalitions are here to stay. That’s literally what we’re going to have for the next two decades,” he said, noting the steady erosion of ANC dominance and the inability of opposition parties to consolidate support into a single alternative.
Seat losses reshape metro politics
From 2016 to 2021, the ANC lost 118 seats across eight key metros – Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, Cape Town, eThekwini, Gqeberha, Bloemfontein and Midvaal – while the DA lost 115.
The losses did not translate into gains for either party. Instead, they were absorbed by several competitors.
ActionSA, a great disruptor at the time, entered the 2021 elections and secured 144 seats across those councils, with its strongest showing in Gauteng metros.
The EFF added 17 seats, while the Freedom Front Plus gained 21. Smaller parties also increased their footprint, with the “other” category like ratepayer associations and small fringe parties growing by 90 seats.
Johannesburg was the great monument to change. In 2016, the ANC held 44.2% of council seats and the DA 38%.
By 2021, the ANC had dropped to 33.2% and the DA to 25.9%, while ActionSA entered with 16.1%. The EFF held steady at 10.6% while smaller parties expanded their share.
“The movement reflects both political movement and voter frustration,” said Murray. “Johannesburg continues to face severe service delivery challenges, including water outages, deteriorating infrastructure and ongoing power instability, factors that have driven voter dissatisfaction without consolidating support behind a single alternative.”
Momentum fades for ActionSA
Yet, after 2021, Neethling said newer entrants such as ActionSA have struggled to convert early momentum into sustained national support.
“They showed a lot of promise but in the 2024 national elections, everything just fell apart,” he said, adding that there is little evidence at this stage that the party is positioned to significantly expand its voter base going into 2026.
Ekurhuleni and Tshwane show similar patterns. In Tshwane, both the ANC and DA dropped below 31%, while ActionSA entered at 18.9%.
In Ekurhuleni, the ANC fell to 37.6% and the DA to 26.4%, with ActionSA securing 12.4%.
DA strongholds and shifting alliances
Cape Town remains the DA’s strongest metro, although its support declined from 68.4% in 2016 to 60.4% in 2021.
In Gqeberha, the ANC and DA are tied at 34.3%, while in Bloemfontein the ANC dropped below 50%. In eThekwini, the ANC’s share declined from 56.2% to 47.1%, opening the door for further erosion.
Murray said that the 2024 national and provincial elections reinforced these trends. Nationally, the ANC fell from 230 seats in 2019 to 159 in 2024, while the DA increased slightly from 84 to 87.
“Based on current data trends, the ANC is expected to remain the largest party in most metros in 2026, although with substantially reduced margins,” Murray said.
“The DA is likely to recover in Gauteng while retaining control of Cape Town and Midvaal. No major metro is projected to achieve an outright majority.”
The road to 2026
Neethling said leadership of the DA could play a decisive role in that recovery. He believes Geordin Hill-Lewis could strengthen the party’s appeal beyond its traditional base.
“He’s made his mark, his record is clean and he’s someone who listens. He’s not controversial and doesn’t pick the wrong fights,” Neethling said.
Where ActionSA may come up short, it seems that the Freedom Front Plus will continue to make gains in metros.
Leader Corné Mulder said his party is shaving off some DA members and even attracting disillusioned black voters.
Former DA leader Helen Zille has a major battle on her hands In Johannesburg. The council has 274 seats, a majority requires 138.
In 2021, the ANC held 91 seats, the DA 71, ActionSA 44 and the EFF 29. Again, based on current trends, no single party is likely to approach that threshold.