Political analysts say Ramaphosa has consolidated enough power inside the ANC to withstand growing internal opposition.
President Cyril Ramaphosa is safe, he has no real enemies in the ANC because he has long rid the party of radical economic transformation (RET) elements who posed a real threat to his leadership.
Political analysts agree that although the long knives are out for the president, he remains safe as his loyalists are prepared to go all out to protect him against his internal opponents and the opposition attempts to oust him.
Ramaphosa strengthened his grip after Nasrec
Those in the ANC who might want to see him go have the reason that he has failed to lead the party to deliver on its promises and successfully fight corruption.
But Ramaphosa has gained political strength since his election to head the ANC at Nasrec in 2017.
He has succeeded in purging internal elements who would have thrown him under the bus on the Phala Phala farm scandal. His internal opponents are unable to muster enough strength to remove him.
Independent political analyst Goodenough Mashego said: “There is no rogue element left in the ANC. What I know is there is an opportunist group inside that is interested in grabbing power, but is too weak to do so.”
Mashatile allies linked to alternative faction
This opportunistic group linked to Deputy President Paul Mashatile and his Gauteng allies such as Panyaza Lesufi and Lebogang Maile, is seeking an alternative path and enjoy sympathy from radical economic transformation (RET) elements – including the EFF and MK.
But they understand that the Ramaphosa loyalists are stronger than them due to their proximity to state resources and they dominate the influential top ANC structures, including the national executive committee.
The RET was weakened when its members were successfully purged via the step-aside rule which requires that members facing criminal prosecution must step aside.
Powerful opponents such as Jacob Zuma and Ace Magashule became its prominent targets, while most of Zuma’s supporter left to join his MK party.
ANC veterans rally behind the president
Zuma’s remaining former supporters, Nomvula Mokonyane, Supra Mahumapelo and others have since switched allegiances to join the Ramaphosa camp.
This cleared the way for Ramaphosa to retain control. Another group, led by ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula, national chair Gwede Mantashe and party struggle veterans, is keen to protect Ramaphosa at all cost.
Political economy analyst Sandile Swana said his supporters would not allow Ramaphosa to be impeached at the behest of the opposition parties.
They would rather drive the impeachment process themselves in a particular direction to ensure Ramaphosa’s “soft landing”.
‘Ramaphosa is controversial’
Swana blamed Ramaphosa for the ANC’s current precarious state that breeds opposition from within.
“We cannot say that there are rogue elements in the ANC at present. Those remaining may be seen as rogue only because they disagree with Ramaphosa and the way he is leading the ANC.
“Ramaphosa himself is controversial, he has no plan to grow the economy and his government doesn’t have the technical competency to do the work it is supposed to do. The evidence is clear, they are struggling to get beyond 1% GDP growth in eight years and, instead, things are getting worse.
“Ramaphosa has not been performing according to expectation, the level of corruption is high and our credit rating is very low, ” Swana said.
He said the rogue elements were bred through the ANC’s treatment of those who commit corruption differently, by showing lenience to some and being tough on others in the party.
“That creates perpetual divisions because junior members want to do exactly what their seniors do.”
He said the president had given up on the ANC improving its performance by directing its members to look to the DA if they want to see service delivery.
His stance is backed by party veterans who believe that for the ANC to succeed, it is better for it to partner with the DA than the EFF and MK.
“They said service delivery excellence will actually come from the DA,” he said.
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