The ANC has a headache over what to do next, with a motion of no confidence in the president also looming.
ANC top brass spent much of the weekend in meetings and on calls to map out a way forward for its president, Cyril Ramaphosa, to stay in power amid a looming impeachment inquiry.
The Constitutional Court (ConCourt) on Friday found that parliament acted irrationally in 2022 when it rejected a Section 89 panel report’s recommendation to establish an impeachment committee to investigate Ramaphosa’s role in $580 000 (about R9.6 million) cash stolen from his Phala Phala game farm in Limpopo in 2020.
Among the reported discussions to be thrashed out at the ANC’s top seven meeting on Monday are whether to accept the panel’s report on judicial review, limit the impeachment committee’s terms of reference, or start canvassing for support outside the party to stop an impeachment by a vote.
Ramaphosa was reported to have been willing to resign over the matter before, but a City Press source within the presidency said it was not on the cards now.
“Resigning at this point would mean admission of guilt, and it would send the wrong message for the party ahead of the local government elections,” said the insider.
Will it find support in GNU partner the DA?
If it is looking for allies, it may not find them in its largest national coalition partner, the DA.
DA parliamentary leader George Michalakis told the Sunday Times his party would not back Ramaphosa just to keep the government of national unity (GNU) intact.
“We are a partner in the GNU, we are not the ANC, we have not become the ANC. We are not going to say, ‘Well, we will forgo our principles for the sake of anything, of staying in government, of turning a blind eye.’”
He added, “There’s no guaranteed support; if there’s wrongdoing, there must be accountability.”
Party leader Geordin Hill-Lewis told supporters on Saturday that the DA would not be part of cover-ups or plans to play the system.
“I want to be super clear to everyone in this room this morning, the DA is in the government of national unity to fix South Africa, so we will never be in the old system of cover-ups, corruption, protecting those in power that have brought South Africa to where we are today.
“What we are trying to do is bigger than me, it’s bigger than you, it’s bigger than all of us. Our work is important, our purpose is big. It is future-focused, we are trying to build a future for our children,” he said on the first day of the party’s KwaZulu-Natal provincial congress.
No confidence vote
To add to the ANC’s headache, its former president Jacob Zuma’s new political party, the MK Party, said on Saturday that it plans to submit a motion of no confidence in Ramaphosa.
“In light of the constitutional importance of a motion of no confidence, as well as the considerable political pressures surrounding such proceedings, we have written to the Speaker of the National Assembly requesting that the motion be conducted by secret ballot.
“This is to safeguard both the independence and integrity of Members’ votes and to ensure they can exercise their responsibilities freely and effectively,” added the party’s spokesperson, Nhlamulo Ndhlela.
It hopes a secret ballot would allow ANC members who are not aligned with the party’s direction on the matter to express their view, as several members did publicly when the impeachment commission was discussed before parliament in 2022.
What next for Ramaphosa and the ANC?
Although the ConCourt gave no timelines, Parliament is now required to establish an impeachment committee, under Rule 129I of the National Assembly rules, which governs how a president may be removed from office under Section 89 of the constitution.
Section 89 allows for the removal of a president on three grounds: serious violation of the constitution or the law, serious misconduct or inability to perform the duties of office.
Once constituted, the committee will gather evidence, test the credibility of the claims and assess the seriousness of the allegations against Ramaphosa before making recommendations to the National Assembly.
Witnesses, possibly even Ramaphosa himself, are expected to be called, questioned and required to respond to or challenge the president’s version of events relating to Phala Phala.
The inquiry is also expected to explore the fact that the burglary at Phala Phala was not reported to the South African Police Service (Saps), and why the cash was allegedly stored in a couch for 44 days without being declared to the South African Reserve Bank (Sarb).
Questions also remain about the exact amount of money allegedly taken by the suspected mastermind, Imanuwela David, and his accomplices.
At the end, the committee’s final report must reflect all viewpoints expressed by MPs during the inquiry.
Once the impeachment committee concludes its work, its report must be tabled in the National Assembly for urgent debate.
If the committee recommends removal, Parliament must vote on the matter.
A president is removed from office if at least two-thirds of the 400 MPs in the National Assembly support the recommendation.
Does the ANC have the votes to prevent an impeachment?
A total of 267 votes is required to remove a president from office.
Since the ANC lost its outright majority in the 2024 general election, the seat distribution in Parliament is as follows:
- ANC: 159 seats
- Democratic Alliance (DA): 87 seats
- uMkhonto weSizwe (MK): 58 seats
- Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF): 39 seats
- Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP): 17 seats
- Patriotic Alliance (PA): nine seats
- ActionSA and Freedom Front Plus (FF Plus): six seats each
- African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) and United Democratic Movement (UDM): three seats each
- Rise Mzansi, Build One South Africa (BOSA), African Transformation Movement (ATM), Al Jama-ah, National Coloured Congress (NCC): two seats each
- Pan Africanist Congress of Azania (PAC), United Africans Transformation (UAT), GOOD Party: one seat each.
The ANC and its GNU partners – DA, Rise Mzansi, PA, IFP, FF Plus, UDM, PAC, GOOD and Al Jama-ah – collectively hold 287 seats, meaning they could block an impeachment if they oppose it.
Other parties including the EFF, ATM, UAT, MK Party, BOSA, and ActionSA collectively hold 108 seats, positioning them as a minority bloc in any final vote scenario.
Additional reporting by Itumeleng Mafisa