South African consumers are facing soaring food costs, with some everyday essentials now costing nearly twice as much as they did five years ago.
If you feel you’re paying through the nose for your groceries these days, you’re not wrong.
South Africans are paying near double for some groceries compared to five years ago. Price hikes have far exceeded the increases in the rate of inflation over the same period.
This is despite official food inflation figures suggesting far milder increases over the same period.
Supermarket shelves tell a harsher story
A comparison between South African grocery catalogues from the Covid period around 2021 and 2022 and current shelf pricing paints a bleak picture of how sharply the cost of living has escalated in just a few years.
The comparison, based on archived catalogues and current shelf pricing on identical products, across several supermarkets from Randburg to the East Rand, reveals how dramatic the combined impact is of fuel hikes, load shedding, global supply disruptions and rising operating costs.
Inflation statistics may appear manageable on paper, but the lived experience at supermarket tills is very different.
Everyday staples have surged in price
Some of the most dramatic increases appeared in products that many buy every month.
Some 2.5kg white sugar brands sold for R36.99 during 2021 and now are R63. A 2.5kg branded cake flour climbed from R21.99 to R44.99 over the same period while 700ml All Gold Tomato Sauce moved from R22.99 to R46.99, depending on the outlet and region.
The latter also used to contain 750ml in a bottle.
Other everyday staples tell a similar horror story. Joko tea bags that sold for R29.99 in 2021 now hover around R54.99 while well-known brands of coffee beans increased from R89.99 to roughly R169.99. Tastic rice, advertised in catalogues at R22.99 during the Covid period, now approaches R50 in many stores.
A dozen large eggs that once sold for R29.99 are now closer to R55. South African consumers were also warned this week to brace for more price clobbering.
More price increases on the way
Retailers said suppliers are already warning of upcoming price increases and that higher inflation is likely to return despite efforts to keep prices stable. They said the sharp diesel price hikes introduced last month have not yet fully filtered through the supply chain, meaning consumers are likely to see further increases at supermarket tills in the coming months.
The price of Lays chips, 120g, suggests the kind of increases South African can expect. The snack retailed for R21.99 two months ago and has since jumped to R26.99. This is an almost 23% increase.
Bread, perhaps one of the clearest indicators of pressure on household affordability, has also climbed sharply. A branded loaf of white bread that sold for R13.99 in 2021 now sells for R20, representing an increase of 43%.
Government standard white bread, which sold for under R10 during the same period, now costs close to R13 in many areas, an increase of more than 30% on one of the country’s most basic food staples.
A Pick n Pay loaf of sliced white bread, at 600g, 100g lighter than a premium 700g loaf of the same, can sell for between R11.99 and R13.99, depending on the store.
The harsh northward trajectory in food prices becomes even more interesting when compared against official inflation data. According to Consumer Price Index Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages data, average annual food inflation stood at 4.5% in 2021, 6.9% in 2022, 6.0% in 2023 and 4.4% in 2024 before easing to roughly 3.9% in 2025.
Fuel costs and transport pressures bite
Food inflation in 2026 started at 4.4% in January before slowing to 3.6% by March. When compounded over the full period, the official figures suggest cumulative food inflation closer to around 30%.
Yet many individual products on actual shelves have increased by 80%, 90% and, in some cases, more than 100%. The discrepancy highlights the growing divide between statistical inflation averages and the products consumers physically place in their trolleys every month.
Staples heavily dependent on transport, refrigeration, packaging and imported inputs appear to be among the hardest hit. Fuel pricing has played a major role, of course.
Between 2021 and 2026, South Africa saw some of its highest fuel prices yet recorded. Petrol 95 ULP reached R26.74 per litre in July 2022 following the Russia-Ukraine war and concomitant global oil disruptions, while diesel 50ppm crossed R34 per litre for the first time this month.
Wage growth struggles to keep up
Interestingly, South Africa’s national minimum wage increased from R21.69 per hour in 2021 to R30.23 this year, up by 39.4%. Yet wage growth still lagged behind many staple food increases.
The pressure is also no longer limited to lower-income households. A middle-class South African earning R30 000 a month in 2021 and receiving annual increases of around 5% would now earn roughly R38 300 before tax. On paper it sounds okay, but purchasing power has eroded sharply.
A household spending roughly R4 000 on groceries during the Covid years could now easily face grocery bills exceeding R7 000 for a similar basket of goods, excluding rising electricity tariffs, school fees, transport costs, medical aid increases, bond repayments and insurance premiums.