Embattled power utility Eskom has notched up something of a milestone in its long and bruising turnaround journey.
On Friday, the company announced that unplanned outages had fallen to 7.3GW – the first time the figure has dipped below the 8GW mark since December 2020.
The development appears to underscore the progress Eskom is making under its generation recovery olan, launched to address the chronic instability that has plagued the grid for the past decade or more.
With only a week left in the “winter outlook” period, Eskom said the system is comfortably positioned to meet demand and avoid power cuts.
Since mid-May, South Africa has not experienced a single hour of load shedding, an achievement many South Africans may have found hard to imagine even a year ago. Between 1 April and 21 August, just 26 hours of blackouts were recorded – a 97% success rate in meeting demand.
Eskom’s available generation capacity currently stands at 30.4GW, comfortably above expected peak demand of 25.4GW. The company expects this balance to hold into next week as it prepares to return an additional 4.8GW of capacity to service by Monday evening.
Performance indicators point to a more stable generation fleet. Planned maintenance averaged 5.5GW in the past week, while the energy availability factor climbed to nearly 65%. Kusile unit 6, contributing 720MW to the grid since March though not yet officially in commercial operation, will be fully commissioned by September.
Gains
Eskom has also tightened its diesel use. Open-cycle gas turbine reliance fell to 0.78% this week, down from 1.21% the week before. Importantly, diesel spending remains within budget – a sign of disciplined management after years of runaway costs.
The unplanned capability loss factor, which measures breakdowns, also improved to 27.85%. While still above last year’s 25.81%, it reflects steady week-on-week gains.
Read: Eskom launches 291MW solar programme for big power users
The winter outlook, issued in May, suggested that load shedding would not be required if breakdowns could be kept under 13GW. By holding outages more than 5GW below that ceiling, Eskom has demonstrated a resilience few expected. The utility will publish its summer outlook next month, but analysts are already pointing to a significantly improved risk profile compared to recent years. – © 2025 NewsCentral Media
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