Dark times ahead as Eskom sits in code red

In combination with Eskom’s latest system status report – the first for 2024 – it is apparent that the country is still squarely sitting with a significant energy shortfall that is not showing any signs of letting up any time soon.

Stats SA’s report painted a dim picture of the country’s electricity landscape since 2018, with data reflecting that 2023 was the worst year on record for rolling blackouts in the country.

According to the data, electricity generation (production) in South Africa decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in November 2023. Seasonally adjusted electricity generation for the same month decreased by 2.7% compared to October 2023.

Year-on-year generated electricity volume continued to decline (despite a 2% increase in 2021), with every month in 2023 (and the majority since 2018) seeing year-on-year declines.

Electricity consumption has also been on a consistent decline. Electricity distribution (consumption) decreased by 2.7% year-on-year in November 2023, and seasonally adjusted electricity distribution for the same month decreased by 2.5% month-on-month.

Conversely, seasonally adjusted electricity generation increased by 1.3% in the three months ended November 2023 compared with the previous three months, whilst seasonally adjusted electricity distribution increased by 0.4% in the same period.

The overall drops in electricity generation can largely be pinpointed to ageing coal plants becoming increasingly prone to breakdowns.

In the first week of 2024, the energy minister, Gwede Mantashe, released a proposed roadmap for the future of electricity in South Africa.

However, analysts have lambasted the Integrated Resource Plan, saying that there are concerning errors in costing the different future energy scenarios, as well as the plan seemingly overlooking environmental impacts in its focus on gas-fired power stations.

Looking ahead to Eskom’s projections for the rest of the year, the power utility’s status report still reads code red across the board.

The system report features a 52-week projection coded based on the expected supply and demand.

This is the forecast demand versus available generating capacity for each week for 52 weeks ahead.

Code Green indicates that the group expects adequate generation to meet demand and feed reserves.

Code Yellow projects a small shortfall to meet reserves (under 1,000MW) but adequate supply to meet demand.

Code Orange anticipates a 1,000MW to 2,000MW shortfall, “definitively” failing to feed reserves and possibly demand.

Code Red is when there is a 2,000+ MW shortfall where both reserves and demand won’t be met, the group said.

Based on Eskom’s assessment, the group is still seeing its system operating around the “worst case” levels of code red, where it is planning for a 2,000MW (equivalent to 2 stages of load shedding) shortfall for the next 52 weeks.

Read: South Africa’s big plan to end load shedding is seriously flawed