The publication includes population figure projections by province, district municipality, local municipality, main place and sub-place.
The Bureau of Market Research has issued projected population figures for the middle of 2025 for South Africa to address the current uncertainty regarding the true size and distribution of the population.
Dr Joshua Kembo, head of the population research division of the BMR, says, “Given that many critical questions were aimed at the accuracy of available population estimates during the past few years, detailed population estimates of greatest likelihood are required to provide certainty in this regard.”
There are many questions about the accuracy of the last census in 2022. It is important for these figures to be correct because they are used by state departments and the private sector to determine where services are needed.
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New population figures meant to update and expand population evidence
Kembo says this comprehensive report presents population estimates across multiple geographic layers from provinces and district municipalities down to local municipalities, main places and sub-places, providing granular insights into the spatial distribution of South Africa’s population.
“These projections aim to update and expand the population evidence base at highly disaggregated levels, providing a detailed understanding of where population concentrations lie across the country. With this level of geographic detail, stakeholders are equipped to make more precise and locally informed decisions.”
According to the report, South Africa’s total population is projected to reach 63.9 million by mid-2025. At the provincial level, Gauteng remains the most populous province with an estimated 15.7 million people (24.5%), while the Northern Cape continues to have the smallest population, estimated at 1.4 million (2.2%).
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Population figures also show population group composition
In terms of population group composition, Black Africans are projected to make up 82.3% of the total population and Indians/Asians 2.6%. The report also provides detailed estimates by age and sex, with females accounting for approximately 51% of the population by mid-2025. The data suggest a gradual demographic shift toward an ageing population, while still retaining a strong youth cohort.
This table shows the population estimates at the national and provincial levels:
ESTIMATES OF THE MID-2025 POPULATION AT THE NATIONAL AND PROVINCIAL LEVELS
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Population figures for most and least populated areas
The report also ranks the top 30 most populous metropolitan and district municipalities, with the Uthukela District Municipality in KwaZulu-Natal in 30th place with an estimated 816 756 people, while the City of Johannesburg Metropolitan Municipality in Gauteng tops the list with a population of 5 878 544 people.
Among local municipalities, Polokwane in Limpopo is the most populous, with 937 281 people. On the other end of the scale, Laingsburg in the Northern Cape is the least populated local municipality, with 9 710 people, closely followed by Khâi-Ma (11 401), Kamiesberg (11 925) and Renosterberg (12 205), all in the same province.
Kembo says the report highlights the significance of population projections as a foundation for evidence-based planning across the public and private sectors by providing the distributional population estimates but also by providing information on population megatrends in South Africa, such as population ageing, decreasing levels of fertility, relatively high levels of inter-provincial migration and continuing urbanisation (and metrification) in South Africa.
“These estimates support effective service delivery planning, particularly in areas such as healthcare, education, housing and infrastructure, while also informing private sector marketing strategies and investment decisions.
“A key strength of this report lies in its ability to provide high-resolution population data of greatest likelihood at main-place and sub-place levels, enabling stakeholders to tailor interventions and strategies to specific geographic communities.”