Eskom’s electricity production in 2026 could fall to levels last recorded three decades ago, despite major improvements in the performance of its generation fleet.
An analysis by MyBroadband estimates that Eskom could produce between 181,000GWh and 192,000GWh this year, with a midpoint forecast of about 185,000GWh.
Eskom generated 189,187GWh in 1996, according to the historical data used in the analysis.
In the first five months of 2026, Eskom produced 75,740GWh. That was 9.5% lower than the 83,704GWh generated over the same period in 2025.
Electricity production has fallen sharply
MyBroadband said Eskom generated 200,082GWh in 2025, down from 252,938GWh in 2007 when South Africa’s load-shedding crisis began.
Production dropped to 194,657GWh in 2023, Eskom’s lowest level since 1999. It recovered to 204,807GWh in 2024 before declining the following year again.
The report attributed weaker demand for Eskom electricity to factors including reduced economic activity and increased private generation, particularly solar power.
Businesses and households have increasingly installed their own generation capacity during years of load-shedding and rising electricity costs.
Eskom plants are performing better
The lower production outlook comes as Eskom reports a significant recovery in the performance of its power stations.
Eskom recorded a daily energy availability factor of 80.24% on 20 July 2026, its highest level since September 2017. Its financial year-to-date EAF had also risen to 66.22%.
The utility credits its Generation Recovery Plan for improved plant reliability.
Falling demand remains a challenge
MyBroadband argued that stronger plant performance does not remove the challenge created by declining electricity sales.
Despite adding substantial generating capacity since 2007, Eskom is producing and selling significantly less electricity than it did before widespread load-shedding.
The analysis warned that continued migration towards private generation could place further pressure on Eskom’s customer base.
While its generation fleet is showing signs of recovery, the latest production figures suggest South Africa’s electricity market has changed dramatically since the load-shedding crisis began.