Political pundits put their money on Jozi’s ex-mayor.
The announcement ActionSA leader Herman Mashaba has joined the City of Joburg mayoral race once again opens the way for a fierce battle for control of the country’s economic hub.
The former Joburg mayor is poised to face DA federal council chair Helen Zille, his former political boss, in a power struggle to wrest control of Johannesburg from the weak ANC-led coalition.
But experts rate Mashaba far above Zille and any other candidates who might challenge him.
Can Zille beat Mashaba?
Despite Zille’s experience in governance and leadership, she will struggle to beat Mashaba. Some pundits also say the ANC stands no chance against Mashaba and Zille.
Independent analyst Goodenough Mashago confidently gave Mashaba a good chance of winning.
“Herman Mashaba is going to be the next mayor of Joburg. The fact he is coming back is the worst news the DA can hear,” he said.
Mashego said the DA would have hoped the ActionSA leader would not join the race. The DA, known for its clean administration record wherever it has governed, should be concerned.
Both leaders are political heavyweights, but each will be judged on their previous service delivery records.
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Would be a win for Zille without Mashaba
Mashego said that without Mashaba contesting, “it should have been a slam dunk for Zille”, who is stronger than the ANC’s potential candidates like Loyiso Masuku, Dada Morero, or anyone from the EFF or other parties that might field mayoral candidates in this year’s local government elections.
He said replacing Morero with Masuku in the local elections would not improve the ANC’s prospects.
Morero has been mayor for some time, whereas Masuku remains relatively unknown outside the ANC. “Trying to create the position of deputy mayor to appease Masuku is not going to work.
“The ANC’s days of running Johannesburg are over. It means in Johannesburg, as in Cape Town, the ANC will never be able to govern again,” said Mashego.
ANC has to work hard
Another independent analyst, Khanyi Magubane, was also optimistic about a Mashaba victory. “The ANC will have to work extra hard to gain footing against Mashaba because what I see is Herman is intending to put up a strong fight and he has good chances of making it to the top seat,” Magubane said.
Magubane said Mashaba’s decision to come forward has instantly transformed the contest into a ‘Helen versus Herman’ race.
“I don’t think the ANC is going to put up any name that holds the same weight. I don’t think there’s anyone the ANC can propose, not Loyiso Masuku nor Dada Morero, who can stand head and shoulder against Herman and Helen,” Magubane said.
Mashaba would also capitalise on the success of ActionSA Tshwane mayor Nasiphi Moya, the party’s ace card, to encourage voters to support him.
“I do think Helen sees Herman as a worthy opponent. It was under the DA that Mashaba was the first DA mayor and Helen herself has been the premier of the Western Cape, so she understands power.
“I think there will be a majority shareholder in a DA/ActionSA coalition, with ANC and other parties at their mercy to join the coalition,” Magubane added.
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Mashaba’s tenure as mayor
Mashaba, who was DA mayor of Joburg from 2016 to 2019 before he resigned from both the office and as a DA member, subsequently launched ActionSA in 2020.
Many credit him with making a significant difference in service delivery compared to the ANC mayors before him.
During his tenure, he cultivated a strong relationship with the city’s workers after insourcing contracted private security guards and cleaners, offering them better wages and benefits.
DA managing City of Cape Town
On the other hand, Zille has experience managing the City of Cape Town, successfully maintaining DA control with efficient administration and consistently positive audit results.
She has also gained influence as a former DA federal leader, Western Cape premier and current federal council chair, a prominent position in the party.
“Herman Mashaba is on his way back,” Mashego said. “The EFF will support him because they knew him as he worked well with them during his tenure.
“The MK party and other parties would tolerate Mashaba as mayor because of his experience running the city.”
However, the analyst warned Mashaba that, to be accepted by all sides, he must set aside his ego and collaborate with various parties to become everyone’s mayor.
“The best the DA could do now is to pull Zille from the race to avoid embarrassment and tarnishing her legacy in Cape Town, and get someone else to contest the race,” Mashego said.
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