South Africa’s firm stance on Israel and sovereignty continues to define strained relations with the US.
The ongoing dispute between the US and South Africa will continue for the next three years of the Trump administration, analysts say.
While it is getting uglier with both countries’ chief diplomats, Marco Rubio and Ronald Lamola, exchanging strong words, experts believe it cannot get to the stage of no return because the two nations need each other and Donald Trump would be wary of giving his opponents ammunition for future polls.
Potential sanctions and political fallout
But the US president could impose targeted sanctions and a visa ban against certain ANC members and individuals who took a strong anti-Israel stand on Gaza.
They include former international relations and cooperation minister Naledi Pandor, former SA ambassador to the US Ebrahim Rasool and even EFF leader Julius Malema.
At the weekend, Minister of International Relations and Cooperation Lamola gave his US counterpart, Rubio, a piece of his mind in response to the latter’s recent attack on SA.
“We do not seek your approval for our path. Our path is our own, chosen by our people and guided by our sovereign laws. But we do seek, and we will always extend, a hand of respectful partnership,” Lamola said in his letter to Rubio.
Why the relationship remains strained
Experts believe Trump would not cut ties completely with Pretoria or ban its ministers as the Democrats would use it as fodder in future election campaigns.
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But Trump could implement targeted sanctions against certain SA officials.
The experts also say there is no hope of a thaw in the relationship for some time because the dispute is not just about the rights of Afrikaners but also about Israel, which SA took to the International Court of Justice.
The court found the allegations that Israel was committing genocide in Gaza to be plausible.
According to independent commentator Doctor Tshwale, there seems to be no hope the states will find each other or reconcile their positions.
“However, we know the two states need each other. The US as a superpower and a large economy and South Africa as the continent’s leading economy. Sound relations between the two are important.
“The US will act first to impose on South Africa, seeking submission on its policy position.
“But it does seem SA isn’t prepared to submit because it believes it can’t compromise on principles. We know the SA government stands firm on matters of global principles.”
Tshwale believed US sanctions are inevitable as Washington is en route to doing so via the Bill in Congress targeting senior individuals in the ANC.
“The US is relentless on this, and the confrontation between the two senior diplomats signals the level of tension.”
Possible impact on South Africa’s international standing
The Afrikaner groups are continuously lobbying to get concessions on the issues they are raising and they believe the US can exert the necessary pressure on the SA government.
“As SA has not demonstrated preparedness to accede to the demands, the US will end up imposing sanctions to demonstrate to its Afrikaner friends that it supports them. The measures will impact on SA’s investment destination profile,” Tshwale said.
According to North-West University’s Dominic Maphaka, more retaliation can be expected from Trump. But banning SA ministers would be too extreme.
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