Although the GNU is fraught with conflict, experts say it remains intact because its formation served the interests of big business and political funders.
The DA, ANC and other political parties have no option but to stay in the government of national unity (GNU) because it would be political suicide to leave it, according to experts.
Several analysts agreed that the GNU is shaky and in trouble, but they also said no parties would pull out because the GNU came into being at the suggestion of big businesses and other funders of the parties.
Recently, there have been several battles between the DA and the ANC but, in the end, both declared they would remain in the GNU.
‘Politics is controlled by market forces’
Ntsikelelo Breakfast, a political analyst, said: “It is well known that the GNU was suggested by big businesses and those funding the political parties that are part of it.
“There are troubles and disagreements but no party will leave. Those that opt to leave will die a slow death.
“Politics has always been and still is controlled by market forces because, for instance, a party cannot win the elections by just having an idea without any financial support.
“But that money is not for free. You pay; the piper can’t be sued. If the parties do not appease those funders, do you think they will ever get funds again?
“There was a time when the DA and the ANC were fighting about the budget vote. We soon saw the DA coming back and cooperating in a way that had not been expected. One could tell that they had been advised by some people.”
Big business’ role in GNU
Sandile Swana, another political analyst, said the GNU was constituted by big business, not necessarily by the funders of the DA.
Swana said big business was invested in the GNU, not in each political party per se. He said it was “not true that, as Helen Zille has said, if the DA were to leave the GNU, then the economy would collapse.
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“If you read the documents from Business for South Africa, it is clear that big business is very aware that the problem of economic growth is that the state has not invested in the correct infrastructure at the correct level.”
GDP woes
Swana said high levels of investment were recorded during the presidency of Thabo Mbeki and the GDP growth rate then was about 5%.
The GDP growth rate this year under the GNU is 0.1% and last year it was 0.6%.
“They are struggling to get to even 1%. It would be better if Herman Mashaba, Action SA, and the EFF were to join the GNU, especially if the DA left. So the GNU is intact. It’s protected inside and outside.”
Political analyst Goodenough Mashego said he had consistently said that the GNU was not a political project, but a business project.
Checks and balances
Mashego said the parties came together because their funders or big business decided that to move forward, they needed to have checks and balances.
“But those checks and balances are not going to be a parliament or National Assembly. There’s going to be the DA being closer to the ANC. Now, the ANC can afford to leave because a big chunk of the foreign direct investors want the DA to be very close to the government so they can be part of decision-making,” said Mashego.
Mashego said the ANC can afford to leave because the economy has been going down under their custodianship for a long time.
“As I said, the GNU is a business project by their funders, their funders being big business.
“Big business put together the GNU which is why when the GNU had to go on trial in the US, in Washington, DC, big business came to explain what the whole situation was about. So whichever party leaves will be finished.”
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