Load shedding and blackout warning for 2024

The return of load shedding follows an 18-day streak of zero rotational blackouts, which many hoped would persist into the new year.

2023 proved to be an incredibly damaging year for South Africa’s power situation, with year-end data by independent energy analyst Pieter Jordaan showing that the average citizen ultimately spent 19.9% of the year with zero power.

Cumulatively, South Africans spent 72.6 days or 1,742 hours with no power in 2023 (aka blackout hours), more than double the amount experienced in 2022 and almost ten times as much as 2021.

The accumulated blackout hours in 2023 were more than all the hours counted between 2014 and 2022 combined, making up 56% of the 129.5 days of total blackout hours between 2014 and 2023.

Not only was 2023 the worst year for load shedding – with outages being in effect for 79% of the year – it was also by far the year of the most intense blackouts, with significant portions of the year being at stages 5 and 6.

Below is a timeline of South Africa’s worst year of load shedding:

• Starting in September 2022, the 91-day blackout trend continued to build a rising base up to early March 2023, fuelled by collapsing baseload generation and climbing post-pandemic demand.

• This trend was subsequently reset by several state interventions, that momentarily improved the coal generation, and lower demand that was brought on by multiple holidays.

• By April, the baseload generation had relapsed and demand picked up, ramping up the blackout rate once more.

• By June the winter demand was much lower than expected, as tariff pressures and the rooftop solar boom started to take effect. The demand breather and cooler weather also helped coal generation to stabilise.

• However, national inclement weather caused several demand spikes in July and September, which resulted in elevated blackout rates.

• Mild weather in October and November saw the medium-term trend back on its downward track, bar for a mini heat wave that spiked demand once more in late November.

• Low demand and improved generation in December allowed Eskom to cut back load shedding, eventually suspending it for its longest streak in years – a total of 18 days.

• Load shedding returned on 2 January 2024 following breakdowns.

Warning for 2024

According to Jordaan, looking ahead to 2024, a big concern is that Eskom’s coal-fired baseload is stagnating.

While this baseload improved from 17.5GW in the first quarter of 2023, it ultimately stagnated to 18.5GW by the end of the year.

“The level needs to improve to 20.5GW to keep chronic load shedding at bay,” Jordaan said.

Another concern highlighted by Jordaan is Eskom’s propensity to turn to its open-cycle gas turbines when things get dire. This is an incredibly expensive solution to its generating problems and can often cloud the true state of the grid.

Eskom’s energy availability factor is also a worry. For load shedding to be a thing of the past, EAF needs to be around 70% – but the power utility is barely able to keep it above 55%.

The group set a target of 60% EAF by March 2023, which it missed, 65% by March 2024 – which it is likely to miss – and 70% by March 2025.

Energy experts have noted that getting EAF to these levels (on a long-term trend basis) is near impossible, as it will take years for the declining trend to stabilise and reverse.

Others have noted that these targets are all moot, as private generation is likely to become more appealing by 2025 anyway, making load shedding irrelevant for a significant portion of the population.

Read: Unhappy new year – load shedding is back