‘Even when the blockades are lifted, it will take months at the very least for fuel production to return to its previous output.’
A looming jet fuel supply crunch in Southern Africa is raising concern among airlines, with operators warning that uncertainty over availability beyond May could disrupt schedules and push up costs across the region.
The Airlines Association of Southern Africa (AASA) said the lack of certainty on fuel supply is now a bigger threat than pricing alone.
“Airlines require certainty on the security of jet fuel supplies beyond a six-week horizon if they are to maintain their schedules and fulfil their obligations to customers,” said AASA chief executive Aaron Munetsi.
The concern follows ongoing geopolitical tensions linked to the US-Israel-Iran conflict, which has affected shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Munetsi warned that even if the route reopens, recovery will not be immediate.
“Even when the blockades are lifted, it will take months at the very least for fuel production to return to its previous output,” he said.
The impact is already being felt in the form of sharply rising prices. Jet fuel in Southern Africa has more than tripled from about R8.50 a litre in mid-February to more than R30 by mid-April. In landlocked countries such as Malawi, prices have surged beyond R50 a litre.
Airlink operates the largest regional network in SADC and, said chief commercial officer of the airline, Katherine Whelan, it has trickled into operations.
“As a direct result of the fuel crisis, Airlink has adjusted capacity and reduced some rotations (flights), but we have avoided route cancellations,” she said.
Airlink has also moved to recover some of the cost through pricing, but Whelan said the airline has tried to manage the impact on passengers.
“Customers won’t be hit with additional increases if the fuel price rises in the period between the ticket purchase and the date of their flight,” she said.
No routes cancelled yet – Airlink
Behind the scenes, the airline is already looking at contingency measures if the situation worsens.
“Our fuel procurement team is encouraging our various suppliers to identify alternative sources. So far we have not had to cancel any routes, but if the situation worsens this would be an option we might have to explore,” Whelan said.
The scale of the cost pressure becomes clearer when applied to aircraft typically used on regional routes. A Boeing 737 800, for example, burns roughly 45 to 53 litres of fuel per minute. At South African prices of around R30 a litre, that translates to between R1 350 and R1 590 a minute. In Malawi, at R50 a litre, the same aircraft would cost between R2 250 and R2 650 a minute to operate.
Over an hour can add tens of thousands of rand to a single flight, depending on aircraft type and operating conditions. Even smaller jets such as the Embraer 195 or Boeing competitor, the Airbus A320, face similar exposure, highlighting how uneven fuel pricing across the region is putting pressure on airline networks.
Fuel surcharges implemented
AASA said some carriers have already begun adjusting operations in response.
“The latest spike has prompted most SADC based airlines to implement cost recovery mechanisms in the form of fuel surcharges, and some carriers have also begun reducing frequencies and consolidating flights,” Munetsi said.
He warned that airlines cannot continue to plan under these conditions without clearer communication from governments and suppliers.
“Airlines cannot plan or operate in an information vacuum,” he said, adding that the industry needs transparency on fuel stocks, deliveries and the possible release of strategic reserves.
However, there has been some reassurance locally. Airports Company South Africa (Acsa) said earlier this month that jet fuel supplies in South Africa remain stable, suggesting that the immediate risk may be more acute in other parts of the region.
Munetsi said air transport remains critical for the movement of goods, including pharmaceuticals and perishables, warning that disruptions could have broader economic consequences.
“Airlines are painfully aware of the pressure that increased ticket prices exert on their customers,” he said, adding that the wider impact on trade and logistics cannot be ignored.
South African Airways (SAA), which operates some regional and continental routes, had not responded to requests for comment at the time of publication. Spokesperson Mphilo Dlamini asked The Citizen to await a response, but none had been provided after two days. The publication will update the article once the airline responds.