Will paying more at the pumps and less for an electric vehicle change South African motorists’ preferences?
Two unrelated events might do a bit to stimulate sales of electric cars in South Africa, where the uptake of the new technology has so far been slow.
The first was the launch in SA of a range of cheaper electric and hybrid cars by Chinese manufacturer BYD (the largest producer of electric cars worldwide last year).
The second was the sudden escalation of the war in the Middle East, which pushed oil prices temporarily past $120 per barrel. It looks like the oil price will remain above $100 per barrel and that SA fuel prices will increase to and remain above R25 per litre for the foreseeable future.
Data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that the increase in the oil price and depreciation of the rand has resulted in a situation where, per litre, the petrol price – fixed for a month at a time – is currently around R4.50 lower than is should be.
Respite seems unlikely, meaning that an increase of around R5 per litre will push the petrol price past R25 per litre.
In the case of diesel, the average underrecovery since the last price fix at the beginning of March 2026 is running at R7.50 per litre.
Affordability gap narrowing
These higher fuel prices and the introduction of the all-electric BYD Dolphin Surf at R340 000 go a long way in reducing the affordability gap between a car with a traditional internal combustion engine and electric vehicles (EVs).
The BYD is some R100 000 cheaper than its closer competitor, the Chinese Chery Tiggo hybrid at R440 000.
After that, prices of electric and hybrid cars increase sharply. The cheapest electric Mercedes is priced at more than R1 million, quickly increasing to R4 million for the bigger and nicer models.
An electric Porsche 911 will put you back R5 million.
Ferrari lists a hybrid Testarossa at R13.6 million, but saving fuel and caring about emissions are probably not the overriding considerations when considering that this beast still has a four-litre eight-cylinder engine and a top speed above 330km per hour.
Pricier
Overall, electric cars are much more expensive than traditional cars. The electric version of the BMW X1 starts at R1.2 million compared to R851 000 for the comparative diesel model.
At Mini dealerships, an electric version is just shy of R900 000 while the petrol-engined cars are around R650 000.
While the sticker on the BYD windscreen is much more reasonable, the question remains whether an electric car makes financial sense – even with a high petrol price.
There isn’t a petrol version of the BYD Dolphin to do a direct comparison with, but there are many other small hatchbacks that prospective buyers would consider. For instance, the petrol version of the popular Suzuki Swift is R100 000 cheaper.
This price difference still swings the advantage towards internal combustion engines, but the gap is closing.
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Let’s crunch the numbers …
Absa’s vehicle finance calculator (with a default setting of an interest rate of 11.25% and a period of 60 months) shows that paying an extra R100 000 for an electric car would increase the instalment by R2 034 per month.
That would buy around 80 litres of petrol at R25 per litre.
The Suzuki Swift uses between 4.8 and 4.9 litres of fuel per 100km, and can drive nearly 1 700km per month in lieu of the higher instalment.
One should also factor in the price of electricity to make a valid comparison.
The BYD Dolphin uses 12.5kWh to 15.5kWh of energy per 100km. Charging the car at home costs around R4 per kWh, depending on municipal rates and total electricity use. Driving 100km would cost around R56, and up to double that when getting a load from a dedicated recharge station.
In SA, environmental concerns around emissions do not change the debate. A look at Eskom’s emissions from coal-fired power stations shows that an electric car is barely better for the environment.
Long distances
Comfort enters the debate when driving long distances. BYD says the small, cheaper Dolphin is good for 310km on a single charge.
It would need a recharge to drive the 488km from Knysna to Cape Town, and hitting Cape Town traffic would see the state-of-charge meter edging worrying lower.
Admittedly, BYD markets the Dolphin as a city car. The bigger vehicles in its range can run for as long as any other car.
Sales stats
Figures from the Automotive Business Council, still going by its old moniker Naamsa, show that sales of ‘new energy’ vehicles (NEVs) have increased sharply – but remain low in comparison to the total market. NEVs include hybrids, plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles.
In 2020, only 324 electric cars of all descriptions were sold in SA, rising to more than 16 000 in 2025.
New energy vehicle sales in South Africa
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
| Plug-in hybrid | 77 | 51 | 122 | 368 | 738 | 2 810 |
| Traditional hybrid | 155 | 627 | 4 070 | 6 485 | 13 616 | 12 818 |
| Electric | 92 | 218 | 502 | 929 | 1 257 | 1 088 |
| Total NEVs | 324 | 896 | 4 694 | 7 782 | 15 611 | 16 716 |
Source: Naamsa quarterly review December 2025
Naamsa says NEV sales by 23 industry brands increased by 3.5% from 4 601 units in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 4 764 units in the fourth quarter 2025, following a 25% increase during the third quarter 2025 compared to the third quarter 2024.
“For the full year 2025, NEV sales by 30 industry brands increased by 7.1% to 16 716 units compared to the 15 611 units in 2024 and comprised 2.8% of the total new vehicle market in 2025 compared to 3% in 2024,” according to the Naamsa report.
Threat from the continent
Norman Lamprecht, chief trade and research officer at Naamsa, notes in the report that several African governments are becoming key drivers of the electric mobility revolution.
“It is with growing concern that the domestic automotive industry is noting the significant developments in other African countries, eclipsing SA in attracting investments in EVs, EV components and public charging infrastructure,” he says.
“A case in point is the recent announcement by Nigeria relating to its agreement with South Korea to establish a 300 000 EV manufacturing plant in the country which would generate 10 000 jobs.”
Naamsa celebrated the 150% tax incentive for the production of electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles, which was implemented from March 2026.
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“This tax break provides a tax deduction on investments in electric and hydrogen-powered vehicle production,” says Lamprecht.
“Industry’s request remains that it also include hybrids and plug-in hybrid investments. Furthermore, supporting the affordability and attractiveness of NEVs for the SA public remains crucial.
“In an increasingly complex and rapidly evolving global automotive environment, characterised by technological disruption, shifting trade alliances and accelerated energy transition pathways, a coherent, forward looking policy framework remains critical to safeguard SA’s position within global and regional automotive value chains.”
This article was republished from Moneyweb. Read the original here.