Oil prices slumped on Monday after OPEC+ countries announced a production hike despite oversupply concerns and growing fears that US President Donald Trump’s trade war could weaken demand.
Stock markets were mixed in holiday-thinned trading ahead of US and British central bank decisions later in the week.
Saudi Arabia, Russia and six other members of the oil cartel announced over the weekend an output increase of 411 000 barrels a day for June, a month after a similar move had already caused prices to fall.
The price of crude has also been sliding because of fears of a global economic slowdown on the back of Trump’s tariff onslaught.
Motivation?
The OPEC+ move “confirms a stark turnaround away from the production cuts that have persisted since 2022”, said a Deutsche Bank research note.
Oil prices fell almost four percent before paring back some losses. Brent, the international benchmark, was down around 1.2 percent at $60.57 per barrel in midday deals in Europe.
Analysts were still trying to pinpoint the oil cartel’s motivation.
“The weekend news wasn’t a shocker but the reasons behind the move remain uncertain,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.
“The official communication says the group is bringing barrels back to the market because ‘fundamentals are healthy and inventories are low’,” Ozkardeskaya said.
“Yet global growth expectations have been crumbling due to a heated trade war between the US and the rest of the world, and rising output only worsens oversupply concerns. So the real reason must be something else,” she added.
She said some argued that the Saudis were “punishing” OPEC members who had not complied fully with the previous policy of cutting production.
Other theories include that Trump has pressed for lower oil prices to hurt Russian finances and speed up the end of the Ukraine war, or that Riyadh wants to push out US shale businesses and increase its market share.
“We don’t know for sure. The exact motive remains unclear,” Ozkardeskaya said.
Fed move
On stock markets, Paris was down in midday deals and Frankfurt edged higher, while London, Tokyo and Hong Kong were closed for holidays.
Investors are waiting for interest rate decisions this week, with the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England holding policy meetings on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
“Our US economists expect the Fed to keep rates steady and avoid explicit forward guidance about the policy path ahead,” Deutsche Bank analysts said.
Among the few Asian markets that were open, Taiwan was in the red while the Jakarta Composite Index rose.
The Australian dollar gained against the US dollar after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s election victory on Saturday, while the S&P/ASX 200 fell almost one percent.
The dollar fell against other major currencies.
Taiwan’s currency also surged against the US dollar, prompting the island’s central bank to intervene in the market and seek to quell speculation.
The five-percent surge was the local dollar’s biggest intraday gain in over three decades, on speculation exporters are rushing to convert their holdings of US dollars to Taiwan’s currency, according to Bloomberg.
Wall Street stocks concluded a strong week on a winning note on Friday, notching solid gains on good US jobs data and improving sentiment about US-China trade talks.
Rand/dollar: R18.30/$
Brent North Sea Crude: $60.45 per barrel
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By Garrin Lambley © Agence France-Presse
