BUSINESS
Eskom is closing the taps
Power utility Eskom appears to have deliberately closed the taps on its diesel use over the past few weeks after almost pushing the country into an emergency reserve disaster in late November.
The latest analysis of the group’s usage of open cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) shows that it has moved to a load factor of only 3.5% for the diesel generators in the first weeks of December after hitting an average of 35% in November.
According to independent energy analyst Pieter Jordaan, Eskom “faced a near-miss” over Black Friday (week 47 – 24 November) when it almost ran out of emergency reserves.
The supply gap in the week ending 10 December narrowed significantly thanks to a baseload improvement from Koeberg unit 1 returning to the grid and a sizeable drop in demand from energy users.
However, Jordaan noted that there were still large power gaps at certain hours – which usually resulted in the use of peaking sources like OCGTs. This past week, however, Eskom simply gave these a skip.
“Starting from the Rugby World Cup finals week in late October (Week 43), Eskom’s OCGT utilisation was amplified to unprecedented levels, averaging a 35% load factor over a five-week period. The diesel consumption continued until the reserves were depleted in Week 47,” he said.
“This week, the diesel use was negligible, with Eskom OCGT posting a load factor of only 2.3% despite a sizable power gap.”
In week 43, for instance, the utility faced an average peak of 1.76 GW and defended 1.67 GW or 94% with peaking resources. This week, it faced an average peak of 2.4 GW and chose to defend only 0.57 GW or 23% of it.
“(Eskom) appears to have deliberately closed the taps since then, given that a peak of 2.4 GW usually garners substantial peaking support,” Jordaan said.
Supportive conditions
This week, Eskom de-escalated load shedding and has again started to deliver periods where outages are suspended.
According to Jordaan, this is thanks to a trifecta of supportive conditions: demand is trending lower, breakdowns are decreasing, and the return of Koeberg has boosted the power supply.
However, all of these supports are constantly under pressure, and the key performance indicator – energy availability (EAF) – is not showing signs of improving to the degree that Eskom or the politicians in charge have promised.
EAF remains stubbornly low at around 55%, a far reach from the 2023 peak of 60% seen about eight weeks ago, and still further off from the 65% target Eskom wants to reach by March 2024 (only three months away).
Demand has started to moderate once more, relieving pressure on power generation, which, in turn, has narrowed the supply gap. “Demand is inching back towards the seasonal norm, with an imminent and sharp taper expected as 2023 starts to wind down,” Jordaan said.
Breakdowns (aka “unplanned outages or UCLF) have sustained a downward momentum for a third week and are on course to improve their yearly best.
While the going is good, Eskom is taking advantage of the wiggle room and is ramping up maintenance.
Full Story Source: Eskom is closing the taps – BusinessTech