Young leaders clamber to replace old amid generational transition.
The battle for control of the ANC in the Eastern Cape – pitting provincial chair Oscar Mabuyane against secretary Lulama Ngcukayitobi – signals a fresh factional war, one that threatens to deepen the party’s long slide into self destruction after two decades of corrosive infighting.
But this clash is less about the present than the future. It is not simply Mabuyane versus Ngcukayitobi, but a struggle over generational transition as the young leaders clamber to replace the old guard.
But the power battles, said observers, risk repeating the destructive patterns of the past 20 years, where factional wars since Polokwane or just before have devoured the party from within.
Mabuyane Vs Ngcukayitobi
The rupture between two former allies in the province now mirrors the broader state of affairs across the country, where power struggles dominate preparations for elective provincial conferences.
The bull’s eye is to be the successor to President Cyril Ramaphosa and his deputy. This implies a move is underway to prevent Paul Mashatile from becoming next president.
The Eastern Cape is no stranger to bruising factional battles. In the early 2000s, the province was the stage for the showdown between stalwarts Makhenkesi Stofile and Mluleki George, a contest that reverberated across the organisation when the Eastern Cape, with its vast membership, acted as kingmaker.
Tension high in ANC
Today, the Mabuyane-Ngcukayitobi tussle appears set to follow the same trajectory – divisive, destabilising and likely to spread beyond provincial borders into the heart of the ANC itself.
Party insiders say the stakes in the Eastern Cape – and to a lesser extent Limpopo – are far higher than in other provinces, the cause of heightened tension and manipulation of processes.
The objective, they argue, is to tilt outcomes toward favoured candidates who can later repay the support in the run-up to the ANC’s 2027 national conference.
How to become ANC president
Acording to sources, any leader with ambitions of becoming ANC president must secure backing from the Eastern Cape, followed closely by Limpopo.
Both provinces have become flashpoints, with frequent allegations of rigging of pre-conference preparations and a string of court challenges from sidelined members citing unresolved internal disputes.
“Sidelining branches is deliberate,” one senior ANC member said anonymously.
“Favoured branches are kept informed, while others are excluded. The Eastern Cape is targeted because of its numbers.”
Mabuyane’s third term
Mabuyane contesting for a third term illustrates the high stakes. “While the ANC constitution does not prohibit a third term, it is frowned upon.
Mabuyane himself once opposed the idea of a third term,” the insider said.
He claimed Mabuyane is contesting Ngcukayitobi because he has been promised national elevation if he delivers the province’s support to a particular leadership faction.
“Oscar is expected to do what Cat (DD Mabuza) did at Nasrec in 2017 – to bring the Eastern Cape numbers and get his reward,” one source said.
Mbalula Vs Mashatile
Reports suggest secretary-general Fikile Mbalula intends to challenge Mashatile at next year’s national elective conference.
Within this dynamic, Mabuyane is seen as the trusted figure to marshal provincial support, while Ngcukayitobi risks being sacrificed in the process.
Political analyst Oscar van Heerden said it was clear Mbalula had presidential ambitions and wanted provincial and regional executives he favoured to win the elective conferences so they could support his candidature at the next ANC national conference.
He said after MK party won huge support in KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape became the largest province followed by Limpopo.
He said whoever wins the two provinces is likely to become the next president and that is why Luthuli House wants their support.
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