Political analysts say a possible jail sentence for Malema could bring his political career to an abrupt end.
The sentencing of EFF leader Julius Malema might be the end of his political career, according to experts.
Malema’s pre-sentencing hearing is expected to start in the East London Magistrate’s Court today.
He was found guilty of unlawful possession of a firearm, ammunition, producing and firing a gun in public and other related charges.
Serious charges, heavy penalties
The sentences associated with this kind of offence can lead to a maximum of 15 years imprisonment.
Political experts interviewed by The Citizen said things were not looking good for the future of the outspoken leader of the red berets.
An analyst, Goodenough Mashego, said if Malema goes to jail, that will be the end of him as a political power.
He said if Malema was to be sentenced to more than 12 months, he is going to appeal to have it reduced. A sentence of more than 12 months means he cannot continue being a parliamentarian.
Mashego said the red beret’s performance in the upcoming elections relies on what the party’s leadership promise potential voters, not the reputation of individuals.
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Electoral consequences for the EFF
He said in previous elections, the party lost support because Malema promised to open borders for migrants – something that voters disliked.
“So, the party was sending a message as if they were saying there’s nothing wrong with illegal immigration. I think that people punished them for that. I don’t think that they will be punished for their individual shenanigans.”
Prof Theo Neethling from the University of the Free State said Malema’s conviction has become a significant political challenge for both the EFF and the constitutional framework of South Africa.
Leadership vacuum and party instability
“What started as a legal issue now has extensive ramifications for the stability of the party, the continuity of its leadership, and public trust in the legal system,” he said. “The EFF is closely tied to Malema’s individual charisma and political influence.”
Despite assertions that the party transcends any one person, there is no definitive successor in the EFF and strategic decisions have historically revolved around Malema.
His absence could consequently disrupt the party and alter their representation in parliament.
Political analyst Prof Ntsikelelo Breakfast said going to prison would destroy Malema and his party.
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