The Coalition Barometer II reveals coalition governments are here to stay, but political infighting continues to undermine their effectiveness.
A new study reveals that contradictions and robustness are common features among current coalition partnerships at all levels of government after the May 2024 elections.
The partners often use coalitions as a platform for political contestation, to challenge each other without risking consequences. They still want to remain in the coalition government to benefit from its advantages.
The study said the government of national unity (GNU) may continue, but under duress, and coalitions, rather than majority party governments, are set to become common in future.
GNU may continue, but under duress – study
The ANC, which obtained 40% in the 2024 elections, used the GNU to consolidate for future elections, hoping to increase its support and take power again.
These are some of the key trends emerging from the Coalition Barometer II report released in Johannesburg on Tuesday.
The study by a team from Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (Mistra) was headed by Mistra’s director of research, Prof Susan Booysen.
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It looks at coalition governments at local, provincial and national levels following the 2024 national and provincial elections.
It focuses on the growth and manifestation of coalition politics at local level and divergence of contemporary coalition politics from the post-1994 practices to trends from 2023-2025 and the influence of provincial and national practices.
According to Booysen, the Barometer II’s core objectives are to identify South African’s emerging culture of coalition politics and governance and to use the knowledge to consider paths to improvement.
Calming of government coalition government
Diving into the coalition trends, Booysen described a relative calming of local government coalition government during the period, where coalition partnerships did not preclude intra-coalition contest.
She said while the calming also affected the national coalition, GNU politics had helped to elevate the ANC and enhanced its status including at local level.
In the process, smaller political parties derived greater benefit from their association with the ANC, while they helped the ANC regain power in several municipalities.
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Party politics and relentless office-seeking dominated coalitions undermined the coalition governments’ functionality at all levels.
“No party has accepted coalition governance as inevitable for the future. Political parties used their coalition statuses as political weapons to gain strength and status for the future, not just on the eve of the elections.
“Parties showed growing awareness that their coalition involvement may threaten their electoral futures.
Growing awareness that involvement may threaten electoral futures
“This impacted coalition government operations,” the report said.
Coalition government performance at all levels was marked by constrained state capacity and failure of public policy and service delivery programmes to meet people’s demands.
The report highlighted the GNU’s “serial crisis of policy” marked by endemic acrimony between the ANC and the DA, while the other eight parties in the GNU participated in a low-key manner with no demands.
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However, despite differences, neither the ANC nor the DA wished to be seen as breaking the coalition.
“Both pulled back from the brink on several occasions.”
The study identified a glaring contradiction where political parties tended to enter into coalitions irrespective of their ideological or policy differences, which they negotiated around.
Glaring contradiction
Booysen cited some contradictory partnerships – the ANC-Freedom Front Plus coalition in the Western Cape and Northern Cape, while elsewhere the DA and the EFF cooperated regardless of the respective party positions at national level.
While the GNU was replicated in some municipalities, the statement of intent (SOI) did not serve as a blueprint for local coalitions. “Parties largely followed local dynamics, ignoring national directives.
“Local and provincial relations between parties often overrode parties’ national directives, with coalition governments forming on the basis that any combination of parties was acceptable,” Booysen said.
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The SOI was the only formal GNU agreement, but it does not stipulate how the GNU might be terminated or redesigned, although it was used to inform the KwaZulu-Natal coalition formation.
The DA relied on litigation to challenge ANC policy decisions. The parties should have used a clearing house to resolve their disputes, the report said.
Booysen said that although the ANC did not get an outright majority in the last election, it had been able to take the space to provide leadership in the country.
ANC not handing power on a platter
It remains entrenched in the state structures. “The ANC is not prepared to hand over power on a platter,” Booysen said.
The Barometer II indicates that municipalities struggle with governance and local coalitions are mired in political instability.
The municipalities also struggle with declining ability to deliver and maintain services against residents’ rising expectations of better services, which they often cannot pay for, while the councils are incapable of generating income.
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