Economists calculate that unemployment can only be reversed if the economy grows by 3% but economic growth is happening too slowly.
Everybody agrees that South Africa should change, but can it change fast enough to beat unemployment, which stands at a devastating 33.2%?
Busisiwe Mavuso, CEO of Business Leadership South Africa (BLSA), says the unemployment rate reflects an economy suffocating under structural inefficiencies that urgent reforms could fix.
“While progress has been made in areas like ending load shedding and improving the ports, critical reforms like port concessions are moving too slowly, creating systemic risks to the entire economy.”
She says the unemployment rate of 33.2% means one in three adults cannot find work. “The question is no longer whether we need change, but whether we can deliver it fast enough.”
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This stark reality drove discussions at last week’s launch of the BLSA Reform Tracker in Johannesburg and Cape Town. The new tool monitors 240 reform deliverables across government, creating an independent scorecard that business and government leaders can use to accelerate progress.
Mavuso says it is more than a monitoring exercise, as the tracker represents business’ commitment to transforming good intentions into measurable outcomes. “The reform scorecard shows encouraging green shoots alongside troubling delays.
Some progress, but not on unemployment
“On the positive side, load shedding has effectively ended, a transformation that seemed impossible just 18 months ago when eight-hour blackouts crippled daily life. Our ports and rail systems are showing some improvement, visa processing for skilled workers has accelerated and we are on track to exit the Financial Action Taks Force (FATF) grey list by the end of the year.
“Yet in critical areas, we are moving too slowly. Our ports remain under single-operator control, an anomaly that creates systemic risk. While performance is improving incrementally, we need fundamental restructuring through private concessions that introduce competition and investment.
“The stalled Durban container port concession, bogged down in litigation, exemplifies how poor process management undermines even sensible reforms.”
She says as Operation Vulindlela‘s Saul Musker noted in Cape Town, South Africa is virtually unique globally, where one entity runs all ports, rail and regulation that creates a devastating single point of failure that threatens our entire trade infrastructure.
“Western Cape Premier Alan Winde reminded our audience how Germany and the Netherlands responded to the Ukraine war’s energy disruption. Germany built its first liquefied natural gas terminal in under 200 days, slashing regulatory barriers to replace 55% of its gas supply previously sourced from Russia. The Netherlands moved even faster with its LPG infrastructure.
“These examples illuminate what focused urgency can achieve. When facing existential threats, governments can compress timelines from years to months by eliminating bureaucratic obstacles and empowering decision-makers.”
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Unemployment should be treated as urgent reform
Mavuso points out that the unemployment crisis demands similar urgency. At current growth rates below 1%, we are condemning millions to economic exclusion while our working-age population continues expanding. The mathematics are unforgiving: without growth exceeding 3% annually, job creation cannot outpace new entrants to the labour market.
“The social and political consequences of prolonged economic stagnation extend far beyond statistics. High unemployment fuels inequality undermines social cohesion and erodes faith in democratic institutions. We are not merely discussing policy preferences but racing against time to preserve South Africa’s stability and prosperity.”
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She says the BLSA aims to inject accountability into this process. Updated quarterly, or more frequently when significant developments occur, the Reform Tracker provides real-time visibility into the reforms that are advancing and those facing obstacles. Users can access heat maps showing progress across all 240 tracked initiatives.
Deputy finance minister Ashor Sarupen and Winde confirmed they already consulted the Tracker to focus their teams on underperforming areas, while Planning Minister Maropene Ramokgopa welcomed it as complementing existing government monitoring systems.
Can South Africa reform fast enough to beat unemployment?
Mavuso believes this transparent, independent assessment should create healthy pressure for delivery while celebrating genuine progress. “Success requires cultural transformation across government, from accepting “business as usual” to demanding urgent execution. We need intolerance for delay and excuses, replaced by relentless focus on measurable outcomes.
“The building blocks exist: capable public servants committed to change, business sector expertise and resources and clear reform priorities. What we need now is unwavering leadership that treats economic transformation with the urgency Germany brought to energy security.”
She says load shedding’s virtual elimination proves that dramatic change is possible. “But partial progress is not enough, we need comprehensive reform implementation that gives businesses confidence to invest without fearing infrastructure collapse.
“If we maintain current momentum while accelerating lagging areas, growth rates above 3% become achievable within 24 months. That will happen when unemployment numbers start declining, investment increases and South Africa reclaims its economic potential.”