ANC officials meet today to begin a ward-by-ward diagnosis of what went wrong in the 2026 local government elections, three days before the party’s National Executive Committee meets on Thursday to decide the ANC’s future.
The meeting comes after Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula described the election outcome as catastrophic for the movement, even as the ANC remains the largest party in the country.
“This has been very catastrophic outcome for the ANC, that we say plainly, as much as we are the largest party, but it has been catastrophic for the movement,” Mbalula said at an ANC media briefing at the Results Operation Centre on Saturday.
“On Monday, we’ll finalise through the officials a detailed analysis of this election. And then on Thursday, there will be an NEC meeting. And on Friday, we will call you again and tell you what is the final position of the ANC.”
Today’s officials’ meeting is expected to lay the groundwork for that NEC discussion: what happened in each ward, why voters who once regarded the ANC as their natural political home turned away, and what the party must now do in hung councils across the country.
Mbalula said branches would be expected to take a proper diagnosis of what happened in each ward.
“Members of the ANC belong to branches. Branches are going to be expected to take a proper diagnosis of what happened in each and every ward, identify what has happened, deal with both issues of delivery, structures of the ANC, but also of what is it that we should do better,” Deputy Secretary-General Nomvula Mokonyane said.
The numbers officials will confront today tell the story of a steady decline.
Mbalula gave the seat figures at the briefing: across 213 councils, the ANC held 4,548 of 8,794 seats in 2021, which was 51.7%. On the Commission’s allocation to date, it holds 3,040 of 8,825, which is 34.5%, a fall of 1,508 seats.
He said the ANC stood north of 31% of the national vote, remained the largest party, and was leading in more councils than any other party, but that more than 100 municipalities were held by no single party.
“The people have given no party a free hand and they have asked all of us to work together,” he said.
Mbalula said the ANC had seen the disaster coming.
“We knew this disaster is coming. We’re staring at it,” he said. “The official polls of the ANC before you can tell us about EAP source and everybody told us that there will be at 34%. We knew what we’re up against.”
He said the party had changed its campaign approach after polling showed it was not in its favour, deploying NEC members full-time to specific townships and areas of ANC support.
“We decided that a certain number of members of the National Executive Committee must be grounded to specific townships or in the areas where we have the biggest support,” he said.
“To a larger extent, I would say that those interventions protected the movement from what was potentially a much more big crisis.”
But he conceded that the interventions were not enough.
The officials meeting today will also have to confront why voters turned away in the party’s traditional strongholds, including in metros and in the Eastern Cape, and why turnout hurt the ANC.
“Voter turnout does affect a party like the ANC. It does,” Mbalula said. “If the voter turnout is low, it will affect the ANC.”
“Take the DA, the DA gains much bigger support in their base because their constituency come out in their numbers. The ANC wins wards with lower numbers.”
He said the ANC had also seen the black middle class voting for the Democratic Alliance in numbers, and that the party was still going to crunch the data.
“We’re still going to crunch data in relation to that and we understand perfectly why that actually happens,” he said.
Mbalula said the ANC would not rush into coalitions, and that opposition and confidence-and-supply were also options.
“We need to emphasise that the ANC will not be in a hurry to get into coalitions. That is not the only option we are looking at. There’s also an option to remain an opposition. There is an option of confidence and supply,” he said.
“As we speak, there are no formal talks underway. We expect that such discussions will begin soon. And the ANC will approach them in good faith, will be open to arrangements that put people first.”
“We will not negotiate with anyone with a cap in the hand begging. We are not in the business of begging for mayorship or any other position.”
He said there would be a national doctrine to guide the ANC in hung municipalities, and that there would be no separate deals in different corners.
“There is not going to be small businesses with people organizing themselves in different corners with a view of cutting deals. We are not in the business of cutting deals. We are in the business of serving our people,” he said.
That doctrine, officials say, will be finalised today and presented to the NEC on Thursday.
Mbalula said the ANC accepted the election outcome and had every confidence the elections were free and fair.
“The ANC has every confidence that these elections were free and fair and we accept their outcome,” he said.
He said the ANC had called for recounts in a number of places in Gauteng, including Tshwane and Ekurhuleni, and that the recounts had proven the party correct in some wards.
“That does not define the fact that the elections were not free and fair. They were free and fair,” he said.
At the heart of today’s diagnosis, Mbalula said, is a reckoning with service delivery.
“We must acknowledge that in too many communities local government has fallen short of the expectations of our people where communities have experienced unreliable water supplies, failing infrastructure, uncollected refuse, deteriorating roads, corruption and poor municipal administration, they have every right to demand better,” he said.
“We cannot ask the people to trust us merely because of our history. Our history gives us a responsibility to serve. It does not give us an entitlement to govern.”
He said the ANC had been weighed in the balance and found wanting in places, and that it would not quarrel with the scale.
“We have been humbled, directed to do better, to do even more introspection. We hear you,” he said. “Part of it is an embrace. And part of it is a judgment and we will not soften that judgment.”
Mokonyane said the party would not immediately call for anyone’s head.
“There is no way that the ANC will immediately wish to call for anyone’s head, then you will have to first identify what has happened,” she said.
Mbalula said if the ANC did not learn from this election, it would learn nothing at all.
“If we have not learned from this election, catastrophic disaster, and allow wrong things to continue, then we will learn nothing at all,” he said.
Councils must be set up within 14 days after the declaration of results. The ANC’s doctrine on coalitions, opposition and confidence-and-supply must be ready before then.