The ANC’s downward trend may be evident in the 2026 local government elections.
The poor attendance at the ANC January 8th birthday anniversary rally is another sign that the party is on the decline – and it’s of its own making because it has neglected the electorate.
The ANC, experts said, had failed to recognise the connection between the state’s inability to meet people’s expectations, including the party’s own promises, and declining voter turnout in elections.
This assessment by political analysts concerns the low attendance at the party’s 114th anniversary rally, held at Moruleng Stadium outside Rustenburg on Saturday.
They said that the poor organisation of the anniversary and the scorching sun added to the discontent of party members, who had endured the pain of empty promises over the last 30 years.
Expert on ANC’s January 8 Statement
Political analyst Goodenough Mashego told The Citizen that the ANC anniversary statements lacked vision, which has not changed since the party was unbanned.
Mashego said the latest statement failed to address the country’s conditions but was merely marching orders for ANC members, not the rest of South Africans, ahead of elections.
“The statement that President Cyril Ramaphosa delivered on Saturday did not speak to the general public but to the ANC.
“You can’t issue matching orders only to your members, especially during the election year.
“It needs to address voters, especially those who left the party for other parties. Instead, it was a nostalgic trip into history. I don’t think the statement was visionary,” Mashego said.
Ramaphosa promised the ANC would improve services through functional local government, rejuvenate economic growth, and ensure visible ANC renewal.
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‘ANC is learning the hard way’
Political analyst Ntsikelelo Breakfast, director of the Centre for Peace, Security and Conflict Resolution at Nelson Mandela University (NMU), said the ANC is learning the hard way.
The party misjudged the impact of its long-standing ignorance of the electorate’s concerns regarding service delivery.
However, Breakfast said the ANC appreciates that change is necessary for it to be acceptable to the public.
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There is a change of heart within the party to restore its dignity and trust from the electorate.
Breakfast alluded to the logistics and poor organisation of the event, but said the numbers no longer mattered because the ANC was in decline.
“Even if the ANC had full attendance at the stadium, these numbers no longer translate into votes.
“The bottom line is that the ANC does not appreciate the strong nexus between the lack of government service delivery and voter turnout in elections,” Breakfast said.
ANC to decline further ahead of municipal elections?
According to independent analyst Sandile Swana, the rally appeared to have been organised haphazardly.
The party seemed to have planned extensively, with multicultural groups scheduled to perform, but failed to check the likely attendance figures.
Swana also referred to the unstoppable ANC decline, which may be evident in the 2026 local government elections.
“The ANC has joined the league of smaller parties, of which it is a leader. It could be facing challenges from parties like uMkhonto weSizwe in places like Gauteng,” Swana said.
Swana said there is a clear signal of ANC decimation due to numerous negative developments surrounding the party since 2008, including the removal of Thabo Mbeki, the advent of the Zuma administration, corruption and inadequate service delivery.
The ANC had lost its parliamentary majority in the National Assembly, KwaZulu-Natal, the Northern Cape and Gauteng, forcing it to cobble together a coalition of 10 political parties.
It was no longer in a position to implement its own programme without consulting the government of national unity partners, he said.
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