South Africans could face higher pork prices as African Swine Fever continues to affect pig farms in several provinces.
Outbreaks have been reported in the Free State, North West, KwaZulu-Natal and parts of Gauteng. The disease has reduced the number of pigs entering the formal market and placed pressure on the country’s pork supply.
Industry estimates indicate that about 7 000 pigs have already been lost from the formal production system. Producers warn that even a small drop in supply can significantly affect prices.
Small supply drop could push prices higher
Industry representatives estimate that a 2% decline in available pork could lead to price increases of about 10%.
Farmers are also dealing with higher feed and operating costs, adding further strain to production.
African Swine Fever only affects pigs and does not pose a food safety risk to humans. Pork sold through formal retailers remains safe to eat, while animal health measures are being used to manage outbreaks and prevent the disease from spreading.
Pork prices have recently dropped
Despite concerns about future shortages, pork prices have recently fallen due to an unexpected oversupply.
Eskort CEO Arnold Prinsloo said wholesale pork prices dropped from about R40 per kilogram to around R30 per kilogram.
Processors had ordered imported pork earlier in the year after fears that disease outbreaks could cause shortages. However, the imports took between eight and 10 weeks to arrive.
By the time the shipments reached South Africa, local farms had completed mandatory disease control restrictions and returned to normal production. This created a temporary surplus.
Shoppers benefit from temporary savings
The oversupply has resulted in lower prices for some pork products.
Pork chops have reportedly dropped from around R120 per kilogram to about R80 per kilogram. Boerewors prices fell from roughly R120 per kilogram to around R100, while three packs of bacon previously priced at R130 are now selling for approximately R100.
Prinsloo expects wholesale prices to eventually settle near the long-term average of R32 per kilogram.
However, continued disease outbreaks and rising production costs mean the threat of future price increases remains. Strong biosecurity and disease monitoring will be essential to protect South Africa’s pork supply.
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