Cape Town mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis is emerging as a frontrunner in the race to replace outgoing DA leader John Steenhuisen.
Independent analysts Sandile Swana and Goodenough Mashego say Hill-Lewis not only enjoys strong backing within the party, but also boasts a stronger record of leadership and service delivery than his rivals, Gauteng leader Solly Msimanga and Deputy Finance Minister Ashor Sarupen.
Hill-Lewis has better track record
Swana said Hill-Lewis’ position is notwithstanding the fact that he is far more junior than Steenhuisen as a politician, including their respective experiences as councillors. Steenhuisen cut his political teeth at the eThekwini metro council.
“Geordin has a better track record than Steenhuisen and Msimanga. Steenhuisen has a baggage of scandals in KZN, where he was demoted and removed from his office and emerged to contest as a leader at a time where the DA funders realised they wanted a white male leader,” said Swana.
“Msimanga left the Tshwane mayoral office without glory with his own scandals and failures. He also does not have a clear track record of success.”
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Swana said Sarupen, who is also contesting as a third candidate in the DA race, has little chance of success. He describe him as “not particularly relevant”.
Stressing his confidence in Hill-Lewis’ success in the race, Mashego said this is “because he is the person [federal chair] Helen Zille wants to lead the party.
“Hill-Lewis is likely to follow Zille’s political growth line – from a mayor to federal leader and then back to being the party’s Western Cape leader later,” Mashego said.
Msimanga has no chance as a black leader
He said Msimanga has no chance of emerging as the party’s leader “because the DA long made up its mind about black leaders towards, or after the 2019 general election, when its electoral performance declined”.
Former leader Mmusi Maimane’s exit from the party marked the end of black influence in the party and Zille allegedly acknowledged later the party was no longer interested in blacks in the leadership.
“The DA funders panicked to see the Freedom Front Plus is growing and the DA is declining in its white support. Therefore, it must go back to where it was,” said Mashego.
“That’s when you saw the departure of influential black leaders like Maimane, Herman Mashaba and others. All this explains why Zille said she did not think at this point in time the party could be led by a black person.”
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Zille’s preferred candidate
Mashego and Swana said the DA has come to accept that the only way to govern this country is through coalitions and they are going to influence as much as possible the direction of the coalitions.
“They want to have influence, even if they don’t have governance,” Mashego said. “So, Hill-Lewis is the person that Zille wants to emerge as leader in this race so as to assure white people. They want to govern through coalitions because they gave up on winning outright.”
Swana said the DA had realised it was important to continue in the government of national unity (GNU) and business had assured them of its support as long as it is an ANC-DA-led GNU. At the moment, the GNU is dominated by the ANC politics.
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